1. High Resolution
High Resolution – resolves the structures that produce high-impact events (e.g. wind ramps and severe convection). Group NIRE and TTU forecasts provide more resolution and clarity on where and when a weather event will occur.
These weather events include: isolated thunderstorms, cold snaps, tornados, blizzards and hail storms.
2. Ensemble Prediction
Ensemble Prediction – simultaneous integration of various model runs, that differ by their initial conditions or physics, help characterize forecast uncertainty. By running 50 separate weather modules, Group NIRE and TTU’s forecasts show the probabilities for any possible weather event. Only by running 50 modules, can an accurate probability be determined for the operators in the following industries:
- Agricultural users: farmers and ranchers.
- Transportation users: air traffic controllers, UPS and distribution companies.
- Energy users: electric grid generators, transmissions and distribution companies.
The difference between Models
High Wind Event
High wind events possess an important fine-scale structure that must be resolved to produce accurate wind forecasts.
12km/4km 24-hour Texas/New Mexico Surface Wind Speed Forecast
Coarse Structure (poor representation}
Fine Scale Structure (accurate representation}
Dry Line Passage
An accurate dry line prediction (4km) will improve the forecast of associated weather such as wind ramps (timing and magnitude) and thunderstorm outflows.
12km/4km 24-hour Texas Surface Dew Point Forecast
Single, diffuse dry line (poor representation}
Double, tight dry line (accurate representation}